Climate science
The planet stands on the edge of a precipice beyond which human actions may no longer be able to control in a meaningful way the trajectory of the climate system, or the fate of human life in a rapidly degrading natural world.
Serious climate change impacts are happening both more rapidly and at lower global temperature increases than projected. If just the present level of greenhouse gases were maintained, the unfolding warming would likely be sufficient to result in, amongst other events, the large-scale loss of Himalayan glaciers and the loss of the Greenland ice-sheet, placing the lives of two billion people in jeopardy and producing a seven-metre sea-level rise over time.
Today at just less than 1 degree of global warming we are witnessing the destruction of the Arctic ecosystem. The complete loss of eight million square kilometres of Arctic sea-ice in the northern summer is considered very likely in the near term, and by mid-century rapid economic and carbon emissions growth could produce Arctic amplification (warming of the polar north more than three times the global average) sufficient to trigger large-scale de-stabilisation of vast quantities of permafrost carbon.
Observed events – from the polar caps to the tropical rainforests, from mountain glaciers to the deep ocean – and the growing impact of carbon cycle feedbacks (in which a small perturbation can cause a large change) suggest we may be well on the way to kicking the climate system into accelerated warming, helping create an aberrant new climate state many degrees hotter.
The restoration of a safe climate requires the reduction of greenhouse gas levels to concentrations within the range that we know will maintain climate stability, probably between 280 and 325 parts per million of atmospheric carbon dioxide, compared to the present level of almost 390 parts per million.
In other words, there is already too much carbon in the atmosphere, and this demands the rapid and near total de-carbonisation of all sectors of the economy, and the sequestration of around 200 billion tonnes of existing atmospheric carbon pollution. This is a challenging task in terms of the necessary scale and rapidity of action, but there is simply no alternative.
We face a sustainability emergency and speed is of the essence. For the high-polluting nations such as Australia, annual emissions cuts in the range of five to ten per cent a year may be necessary, and five per cent or more of world production may be required for a sustained period to build a global renewable energy system and a low-pollution world economy.
Transformative leadership and an imaginative, large-scale emergency transition programme will be necessary. It will be vital to ensure we live better by consuming less as we devote a significant portion of national production to rebuilding a sustainable society. At the same time it will be vital to ensure that this transition is just and minimises impacts on the most disadvantaged members of society.
Yet government agencies and corporate leaders appear overwhelmed by the challenge or are powerless to offer the needed leadership. As a consequence our community is critically underprepared. The full implications of climate change are not being investigated, the requirements for rapidly restoring a safe climate are not being determined, and effective action plans are not being prepared or implemented.
Recent climate science news…
‘Scary’ climate message from past
10 October 2009
A new historical record of carbon dioxide levels suggests current political targets on climate may be “playing with fire”, scientists say.
Arctic seas turn to acid, putting vital food chain at risk
4 October 2009
With the world’s oceans absorbing six million tonnes of carbon a day, a leading oceanographer warns of eco disaster.
No rainforest, no monsoon: get ready for a warmer world
30 September 2009
By 2055, climate change is likely to have warmed the world by a dangerous 4 °C unless we stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere the way we do now. This is the startling conclusion of a study by the UK Met Office, unveiled at a conference in Oxford this week.
A safe operating space for humanity
24 September 2009
Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change, argue Johan Rockström and colleague
Schellnhuber: developed countries are ‘carbon insolvent’
10 September 2009
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Germany’s climate adviser and respected physicist, shares his stark but simple view of how much CO2 we can emit by 2050
How global warming sealed the fate of the world’s coral reefs
2 September 2009
Destroyed by rising carbon levels, acidity, pollution, algae, bleaching and El Niño, coral reefs require a dramatic change in our carbon policy to have any chance of survival, report warns
It’s not drought, it’s climate change, say scientists
30 August 2009
Scientists studying Victoria’s crippling drought have, for the first time, proved the link between rising levels of greenhouse gases and the state’s dramatic decline in rainfall
Warming fears intensify as oceans heat up
22 August 2009
July was the hottest month for the world’s oceans in almost 130 years of record keeping.
The future of the Great Barrier Reef (video)
SCA advisor Dr J.E.N. “Charlie” Veron at the Royal Society’ London, 6 July 2009
Read the accompanying paper
Study links drought with rising emissions
16 August 2009
Drought experts have for the first time proven a link between rising levels of greenhouse gases and a decline in rainfall.
Farmers face hardship as climate changes
15 August 2009
While politicians argue whether a climate-changed future is reality or myth, farmers live with the consequences.
As Arctic Ocean warms, megatonnes of methane bubble up
17 August 2009
It’s been predicted for years, and now it’s happening. Deep in the Arctic Ocean, water warmed by climate change is forcing the release of methane from beneath the sea floor.
$38bn warning on Great Barrier Reef bleaching
10 August 2009
Bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef will cost Australia almost $38 billion if climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions continues unchecked, an analysis has found.
Fertile Crescent ‘will disappear this century’
27 July 2009
Is it the final curtain for the Fertile Crescent? This summer, as Turkish dams reduce the Tigris and Euphrates rivers to a trickle, farmers abandon their desiccated fields across Iraq and Syria, and efforts to revive the Mesopotamian marshes appear to be abandoned, climate modellers are warning that the current drought is likely to become permanent. The Mesopotamian cradle of civilisation seems to be returning to desert.
Australia’s Dry Run
April 2009
What will happen when the climate starts to change and the rivers dry up and a whole way of life comes to an end? The people of the Murray-Darling Basin are finding out right now.
Wild weather in the year ahead, scientists predict
12 July 2009
Climate scientists have warned of wild weather in the year ahead as the start of the global “El Niño” phenomenon exacerbates the impact of global warming. As well as droughts, floods and other extreme events, the next few years are also likely to be the hottest on record, scientists say
The planet’s future: Climate change ‘will cause civilisation to collapse’
12 July 2009
Authoritative new study sets out a grim vision of shortages and violence – but amid all the gloom, there is some hope too.
Indian monsoon among risks from rapid climate change
10 July 2009
Rising seas, a rapid weakening of the Indian monsoon and spiraling costs of adapting to a warmer, drier world are just some of the looming risks from rapid climate change, a report for the Australian government says.
Oxfam Details Economic Impact of Warming
6 July 2009
A new paper from the international aid group Oxfam reinforces the notion that global warming will have a greater impact on poor countries.
Study documents close relationship between past warming and sea-level rise
21 June 2009
The new record reveals a systematic equilibrium relationship between global temperature and CO2 concentrations and sea-level changes over the last five glacial cycles. Projection of this relationship to today’s CO2 concentrations results in a sea-level at 25 (+/-5) metres above the present.
Climate catastrophe getting closer, warn scientists
18 June 2009
The world faces a growing risk of “abrupt and irreversible climatic shifts” as fallout from global warming hits faster than expected, according to research by international scientists released Thursday.
Download report (PDF)
Another tough summer for Arctic sea ice
5 June 2009
The annual melt-back of Arctic Ocean sea ice is deepening — driven by the arrival of warmer weather and the thinness of the winter ice that rebuilt after last summer’s melt.
Global emissions to leap 39 percent by 2030
27 May 2009
Global carbon dioxide emissions are set to rise 39 percent by 2030 as energy consumption surges in the developing world, notably in Asian giants China and India. The projections presume no legislative changes to cap emission levels or other initiatives to reduce the use of fossil fuels.
Climate change odds much worse than thought
19 May 2009
The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth’s climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago — and could be even worse than that.
Read the report (PDF)
Fears of collapse as coral reefs feel the heat
13 May 2009
The most spectacular stretch of coral reefs on the planet is in danger of collapse from climate change, overfishing and pollution, according to a report being presented today at the World Oceans Conference in Indonesia.
An exit strategy
30 April 2009
Emissions targets must be placed in the context of a cumulative carbon budget if we are to avoid dangerous climate change.
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Too much of a bad thing (PDF)
There are various – and confusing – targets to limit global warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases. Estimates based on the total slug of carbon emitted are possibly the most robust, and are worrisome.
A sensitive subject
30 April 2009
Gauging how the planet will respond to rising emissions remains one of the biggest questions in climate science.
Fossil corals show catastrophic sea-level rise?
15 April 2009
Fossil coral reefs at a Mexican theme park “confirm” that sea levels rose rapidly about 121,000 years ago, according to a controversial new study.
Arctic Literally On Thin Ice, According To New Satellite Data
6 April 2009
The latest data from NASA and the University of Colorado at Boulder’s National Snow and Ice Data Center show the continuation of a decade-long trend of shrinking sea ice extent in the Arctic, including new evidence for thinning ice as well.
The New Age of Extinction
3 April 2009
Conservationists estimate that extinctions worldwide are occurring at a pace that is up to 1,000 times as great as history’s background rate before human beings began proliferating. Worse, that die-off could be accelerating.
Arctic meltdown is a threat to humanity
25 March 2009
I am shocked, truly shocked,” says Katey Walter, an ecologist at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks. “The permafrost is melting fast all over the Arctic, lakes are forming everywhere and methane is bubbling up out of them.”
Amazon could shrink by 85% due to climate change, scientists say
11 March 2009
Scientists say 4-degree rise would kill 85% of the Amazon rainforest, and even modest temperature rise would see 20-40% loss within 100 years
Climate change transforming rainforests into major carbon emitters, warn scientists
11 March 2009
Although carbon dioxide encourages growth trees die younger, claims researcher.
Sea levels rising faster than expected – scientists
10 March 2009
The U.N.’s climate change panel may be severely underestimating the sea-level rise caused by global warming, climate scientists said, calling for swift cuts in greenhouse emissions.
Severe global warming will render half of world’s inhabited areas unliveable, expert warns
12 March 2009
Parts of China, India and the eastern US could all become too warm in summer for people to lose heat by sweating, expert warns
Global warming may trigger carbon ‘time bomb’, scientist warns
10 March 2009
Billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide and methane could be released from thawing Arctic soils.